UK Election June 08

[peejaye]

Looks like even Stavros as become worried?

[Jericho]

Slightly less elated this morning.
What do they say about posting and drinking? Oooops!

But I do not care...Even the hangover's worth it!

[broncofan]

Slightly less elated this morning.
What do they say about posting and drinking? Oooops!

But I do not care...Even the hangover's worth it!

Who can blame you. Things are looking a hell of a lot better than when the election was called. Right? Every article that comes up on my feed says May's lead has narrowed and that she has made a mistake by thinking she can sit on a lead. Still election polling leaves a lot of room for error, and that doesn't cut either way but is a caution not to take any result for granted.

[peejaye]

Who can blame you. Things are looking a hell of a lot better than when the election was called. Right? Every article that comes up on my feed says May's lead has narrowed and that she has made a mistake by thinking she can sit on a lead. Still election polling leaves a lot of room for error, and that doesn't cut either way but is a caution not to take any result for granted.

She's obscenely arrogant, think she can just talk about "strong stable" leadership, Br-exit(they have no idea on that either) don't have to turn up to live television debates, have virtually no policies, few they have published have no justifications on costings; It's the biggest circus in town since Billy Smarts!.....but they've got the media onside & that's a HUGE advantage!

[Stavros]

OMFG, for the first time in my lifetime, we're looking at a possible LABOUR government!

Setting aside the gnomic maths in your post, Jericho, I can't see a Labour government emerging from this election unless there is a truly dramatic collapse of the Tory vote in England. On the one hand yes, the election of 2010 resulted in a House of Commons with no overall control and the formation of a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition, underlining the fact the Tories had failed to win an election since 1992, and even the victory in 2015 only produced a majority of 12. That could be overturned on a modest swing, but 2015 saw the decimation of the Labour vote in Scotland with no sign that the party is going to return to the days when its Scottish MPs were numbered in double figures. It is just about conceivable there could be a Labour-SNP coalition were it not for the SNP rejecting this option. But while Martin Baxter's Election Calculus has revised downwards a prediction with the Tories having a majority of 76, there are no signs that the share of the Labour vote is going to win them seats taken from the Tories.

Put simply, the Tories have conducted their worst election campaign since the 1990s. It was clear from the start that they wanted it to be a personality contest between 'Strong and Stable' May versus 'Loony left' Corbyn. What happened is that the Tories did not plan ahead a manifesto with sound policies, but cobbled some ideas together, and not only were they not costed -rather like going to a restaurant which has a menu but not prices- on a key policy like social care that affects not just many elderly people but also their property, the policy was inserted late and without any consultation across the party with people who might have advised May to amend it or even to just omit it.
The consequence has been that Work and Pensions Secretary Damian Green has disappeared from the campaign, and Mrs May failed to persuade anyone it was part of a 'consultation paper' and not a 'u-turn', and as 'Strong and Stable' became -thanks to Michael Crick at Channel 4 News- 'Weak and Wobbly- May retreated into a temporary hermitage leaving Corbyn to mop up the resentment and in the process come across as a rather likeable chap who has some sincerely held beliefs about poverty, educational opportunity and taxes.

This week has seen the launch of a new brand for Mrs May who is now lauding the 'future' for the UK as we leave the EU, and is the only person who can lead the Brexit negotiations to get the best deal, and if past form is anything to go by the Murdoch press and the Mail will be trying to smear Corbyn and Labour -if not him then Dianne Abbott, John McDonnell or someone else- to tilt the mood away from Corbyn. But senior Tories are invisible, and it will all come down again to the magnetic personality of Theresa May...David Davis has been around a lot, and I have seen a lot of Amber Rudd, even though her father died in the last ten days (having lost her husband, the journalist AA Gill earlier this year), but nothing of Liam Fox, Philip Hammond, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, Sajid Javid, and others.

So yes, there is a swing in Labour's step, and the Tories look, well, laboured, but behind the scenes the two parties are fairly well informed and the only issue for the Tories is the size of the majority, because the smaller it is, the weaker it is for Mrs May.

The latest Election Calculus is here-
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

[Jericho]

Who can blame you. Things are looking a hell of a lot better than when the election was called. Right? Every article that comes up on my feed says May's lead has narrowed and that she has made a mistake by thinking she can sit on a lead. Still election polling leaves a lot of room for error, and that doesn't cut either way but is a caution not to take any result for granted.

Like I say, betting odds are the ones to watch.
When was the last time you told a pollster the truth? I tell them the exact opposite, just for the fuck of it. But when it comes to laying money down...

[Jericho]

So yes, there is a swing in Labour's step, and the Tories look, well, laboured, but behind the scenes the two parties are fairly well informed and the only issue for the Tories is the size of the majority, because the smaller it is, the weaker it is for Mrs May

Even if they do win, I think May's finished after the election.
They'll have won in spite of her, not because of.

But, Craig Mackinlay getting charged, another attack on the NHS...Call it pie in the sky, wishful thinking, whatever.
I'm feeling that dramatic collapse.

[Jericho]

Looks like even Stavros as become worried?

He's had other things on his mind!

[peejaye]

Welcome back Stavros.
Thing is; Tory voters will go out & vote in appalling weather, floods, on crutches, in wheelchairs, in taxis(they can afford it) while Labour voters won't be so committed, a lazy day in nursing a hangover & that's a vote wasted!
Hurts & pains me but I think Stavros is right?
Worth a "wager" though if Corbyn is good odds!

[Stavros]

Welcome back Stavros.
Thing is; Tory voters will go out & vote in appalling weather, floods, on crutches, in wheelchairs, in taxis(they can afford it) while Labour voters won't be so committed, a lazy day in nursing a hangover & that's a vote wasted!
Hurts & pains me but I think Stavros is right?
Worth a "wager" though if Corbyn is good odds!

I wasn't gone for long! Whatever -betting on elections is rarely worth the money owing to the fact in the UK you only have two choices, thus to win this election the Tories are between 9and 14 to one on to win, Labour mostly 6-1. However, if you believe Theresa May is not going to last as Tory leader, there are some curious odds on her successor- set aside Nigel Farage who is not even a member of the party, you can get 40/1 for David Davis whereas the favourites are Boris Johnson and Amber Rudd 4,5 or 6 to one -but I am sceptical about Boris as I think he is now seen as a maverick who will not unite the party, if anyone can. The real issue would be who is soft on Brexit and who is hard.
My advice would be to save your money and back the horse in tomorrow's Derby that has already won over the distance.
Here are the odds:

General Election:
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...ion/most-seats

Next Tory leader:
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...rvative-leader