Murder /Assassination of Kim Jong Nam

[sukumvit boy]

Leadership shifts to Kim's sister as Supreme Leader in coma for "months".
https://nypost.com/2020/08/24/kim-jo...arances-faked/

[sukumvit boy]

Kim's sister Kim Yo-jong( aka Cruella) disappears from public view which may signal a power struggle . Cruella already started saber rattling a few weeks ago referring to South Korea as "the enemy". May the world hope that a more moderate leadership might appear and topple the Kim dynasty?

[Stavros]

The consensus appears to be that succession will either be orderly or disorderly, as nobody believes KJO designated a successor and his children are too young. The ideology that insists leaders trace their origins to the Mountain in some sort of spiritual bond that confers eternal status on Kim il-Sung, may not amount to a national ideology, so the arguments revolve around the existing mechanism for maintaining Worker's Party of Korea rule. So here are two links-

This to me seems the most rational, as it posits the hypothesis that North Korea need not base its leadership solely on one family, and that the next leader is most likely to be a Party man as KJu rebalanced power in NK toward the party and away frrom the military, though the candidate if he is serious about long term power must re-forge some links with the military, as both organizations benefit most from power. So, rejecting KJu's sister:

"A better bet is Choe Ryong Hae, the head of the Supreme People’s Assembly and thus nominal head of state. He is the unofficial No. 2 and apparently trusted by Kim Jong Un. He is older, has broad experience, and is well tested in politics at the top. He also benefits from Kim’s institutional rebalancing, shifting authority back from the military, which was favored by his father, to the party. Reportedly, Choe was active in asserting party control over the armed forces, which may well oppose him for this reason."
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/29...cession-death/

The more pessimistic view, co-written by veteran American Korea analyst Victor Cha, consider the dilemma of collapse/chaos, and argues that a balancing act will be required between South Korea and its allies, mainly the US, and China, with the key issues being border control, the capture of NK's nuclear arsenal, and the maintenance of public order inside North Korea. Given the current doubts about the competence of the USA and its disputes with China, even though most of it is waffle, at this moment the last thing anyone needs is chaos, not least as Putin appears to be giving 'security guarantees' to Lukashenko in Belarus, perhaps as a warning to the democracy movement there that Russia won't allow it. Under Xi, I would expect China to take a more aggressive stance to effectively 'warn off' South Korea and its American ally from interfering in North Korea.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...er-kim-jong-un

[sukumvit boy]

The consensus appears to be that succession will either be orderly or disorderly, as nobody believes KJO designated a successor and his children are too young. The ideology that insists leaders trace their origins to the Mountain in some sort of spiritual bond that confers eternal status on Kim il-Sung, may not amount to a national ideology, so the arguments revolve around the existing mechanism for maintaining Worker's Party of Korea rule. So here are two links-

This to me seems the most rational, as it posits the hypothesis that North Korea need not base its leadership solely on one family, and that the next leader is most likely to be a Party man as KJu rebalanced power in NK toward the party and away frrom the military, though the candidate if he is serious about long term power must re-forge some links with the military, as both organizations benefit most from power. So, rejecting KJu's sister:

"A better bet is Choe Ryong Hae, the head of the Supreme People’s Assembly and thus nominal head of state. He is the unofficial No. 2 and apparently trusted by Kim Jong Un. He is older, has broad experience, and is well tested in politics at the top. He also benefits from Kim’s institutional rebalancing, shifting authority back from the military, which was favored by his father, to the party. Reportedly, Choe was active in asserting party control over the armed forces, which may well oppose him for this reason."
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/29...cession-death/

The more pessimistic view, co-written by veteran American Korea analyst Victor Cha, consider the dilemma of collapse/chaos, and argues that a balancing act will be required between South Korea and its allies, mainly the US, and China, with the key issues being border control, the capture of NK's nuclear arsenal, and the maintenance of public order inside North Korea. Given the current doubts about the competence of the USA and its disputes with China, even though most of it is waffle, at this moment the last thing anyone needs is chaos, not least as Putin appears to be giving 'security guarantees' to Lukashenko in Belarus, perhaps as a warning to the democracy movement there that Russia won't allow it. Under Xi, I would expect China to take a more aggressive stance to effectively 'warn off' South Korea and its American ally from interfering in North Korea.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...er-kim-jong-un

Interesting ,in depth articles. Thanks.