The Elections in France, 2017

[broncofan]

My generation of Manhattan Republicans grew up mocking France and her 30 hour work week, anti-American socialism, and 6 week vacations. .
Vive la France

See, I never got these reasons. To me the only reason to be upset at the French is for the unbelievable snottiness with which they treat tourists, especially Americans. Even being positively inclined towards them and their culture, it's tough to leave Paris without having a few dicey interactions.

Anyhow, I am extremely appreciative of the fact that they didn't elect the fascist. They also did a brilliant job of resisting the many hack attempts by the Russians. It means that the right wing populists don't hold sway everywhere and there will be at least some sane heads of state in Germany and France, to counter what we have elsewhere.

So vive la France

[Stavros]

Figures from Wikipedia, which I assume to be reasonably accurate

Second Round
Voter Turnout 74.56% (2012 -80.35%)
Emmanuel Macron 66.10%
Marine Le Pen 33.90%
Spoiled/Void ballots 11.47% (2012 -5.82%)
Abstentions 25.44% (2012 -19.65%)

[filghy2]

The role of the media seems to have been important in France. There is no French equivalent of Fox News, or of the tabloid press in the UK, essentially publishing one-sided propaganda. The French media seem to have been pretty responsible about not playing into the hackers' hands.

[trish]

I like how in France it's the candidate with the most votes who wins.

[Stavros]

The first round of elections for the National Assembly was held yesterday, Sunday 11th June, and so far it looks like the new party headed by President Macron has won the majority of seats, and if repeated in the second round next Sunday will give him the power base to rule whereas I suggested before that it was not known if he had the organization to mount a national campaign. Clearly Macron has the momentum, but what it just as important is that the National Front has made no advance so far.

Voting shows a 31.9% support for Macron's party, En Marche! With the second placed Republicains and allies on 18.9% (in the first round in 2012 the party of former President Sarkozy and allies received 27.12%), while the National Front received around 13.8% compared to 13.6% in the first round in 2012. Votes for the Socialist Party have collapsed: the first round for Francois Hollande's party is around 7.45% compared to 29.35% in the first round in 2012, in all cases these results are based on 90% of votes cast.
However, voter turnout was low, at 48.6% compared to 57.23% in the first round in 2012.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-f...-idUSKBN19200Y

2012 results here-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation...embly_(France)

[Stavros]

The second round of elections in France has consolidated Emmanuel Macron's popularity.
His party -En Marche!- now has 308 seats in the National Assembly, and ruling with the Democratic Movement this gives the two parties combined a comfortable majority of 350. The conservative Republicans won 113 seats (in 2012 the party of Sarkozy won 194). The National Front have improved on their position in 2012 when they had two seats, but the increase to 8 will be a bitter disappointment even though its leader, Marine Le Pen has now been elected to the Assembly. The National Front did worse than small parties of the left, the Communist Party taking 10 seats, and La France Insoumise (France Unbowed) the party of Jean-Luc Melenchon won 17 seats. Nevertheless, the geography of this election retains the popularity of the National Front in the south-east and parts of the industrial north, but nothing on a scale that suggests they are on a roll.
The vote for the Socialist Party has collapsed -in 2012 the party of President Hollande secured 280 seats, in this election they have been reduced to 29.
Voter turnout in the election was 42.64%, the lowest in the history of the Fifth Republic (began in 195; abstentions are another record, a high at 57.36% of the electorate.

The election cements Macron for the time being, but the apparent disdain for the election should worry him and his team, given the high rate of abstentions. But this is also a worry for Le Pen and the National Front which increased its seats in the Assembly and increased its share of the vote in the second round from 3.66% in 2012 to 8.75% in 2017, but falls short of the 15 seats enabling it to form a parliamentary group, and does not indicate that their party has wide appeal.

The election further confirms that the 'earthquake' in politics supposedly started by Brexit and the US Presidential election has not rippled through European politics (one also should note the prior success of Pierre Trudeau in Canada in seeing off the Conservatives there). Moreover, Macron is in favour of more EU integration and as I think I have suggested before, this could be a problem for the UK in the negotiations which began this morning (Monday 19th June).

Macron's team of 18 Ministers is modern, a mix of left and right, and is 50% female with the Defence portfolio taken by a woman, Sylvie Goulard, and the Environment portfolio taken by France's equivalent of David Attenborough, Nicolas Hulot.

The UK and the USA look isolated in a world in which the values of 'old Europe' appear to be enduring where they matter most. But to make these values grow, Macron and Merkel may need to focus more attention on Eastern and Southern Europe, as these are the weak areas of the Union.

Links:
Election results
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French...election,_2017

Analysis
http://www.politico.eu/article/4-tak...tary-election/
https://www.thelocal.fr/20170618/vot...tary-elections
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nch-parliament
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7741151.html