The General Election in the Netherlands, March 2017

[Stavros]

There will be a General Election in the Netherlands (pop. approx 17 million) on the 15th March 2017 to elect 150 members of the House of Representatives. The election is being seen as the first in a series of elections which will indicate if the UK's vote to leave the EU, and the election of Donald Trump as President of the USA is part of a continuing trend in which established political parties fail to retain their popular support, the elections following this one being in France (April-May) and Germany (Sept-Oct).
(*There is also a by-election in the UK on the 23rd February where the crucial outcome will be for Labour and UKIP, though there is an outside chance the Tories could win the seat).

Because the Netherlands elects its Representatives using a Proportional Representation electoral system, one party rarely wins enough seats to form a majority, so Coalition government has been a standard form of rule. The current Prime Minister, Mark Rutte leads the liberal-conservative People's Party for Freedom and Democracy with 40 seats, (Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie, founded in 194, the second largest party with 35 seats being the Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid, founded in 1946).

The focus of interest has been on theParty for Freedom (Partij voor de Vrijheid, founded c2006) and its leader, Geert Wilders. Wilders was originally a member of Mark Rutte's party before leaving to form the Party for Freedom, and was also in Coalition with the Party for Freedom and Democracy before walking out in 2012. Although Wilders and Rutte are not too far apart on a range of economic issues, Wilders party has a range of policies, many of them targeted at immigrants and Muslims which sets it apart from the other parties.

However, what this also means is that because of its policies, and the personality of Wilders himself, the prospect of the Party of Freedom being in the next government is slim as the other parties have said they will not agree to form a coalition with it. In the last General Election Party for Freedom won 15 seats with 10.1% of the vote, but has higher poll ratings indicating an increase in seats. The Labour Party, as appears to be common with its counterparts in the UK and France, is in disarray and unlikely to hold on to its 38 seats.
This article from the FT discusses the unlikelihood of a coalition government with the Party for Freedom:
https://www.ft.com/content/e2584e74-...c-be108f1c1dce

Among the policies being promoted by Wilders' Party for Freedom are -
leaving the Euro and restoring the Guilder as the Netherlands currency, leaving the EU, restrictions on immigration, and a variety of policies targeted specifically at Muslims.

It may be worth noting that Geert Wilders was denied entry to the UK in 2009 on the grounds that his inflammatory statements, and the anti-Islamic film he made (Fitna) would threaten community harmony and public safety in the UK. The denial was reversed upon appeal but I do not believe Wilders has chosen to visit the UK since anyway. The letter to Wilders denying him entry is in this link:
http://www.geertwilders.nl/images/im...ry-into-uk.pdf

[Stavros]

The result of the General Election produced surprises that have been welcomed across Europe, for while the Party of Freedom led by Geert Wilders is now the second largest party in the Netherlands Parliament, it will not be part of the new Coalition government that is being put together by Mark Rutte of the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy. The outstanding features of the result are the collapse of the Labour Party vote which fell by 19.1% giving them 9 seats in Parliament where before they had 38. But if there has been an assumption, common in the UK and France, that 'working class' voters will choose a nationalist as an alternative, this did not materialise in the Netherlands, where the surge of votes was for the Green Left, whose vote rose by 9% to give it 14 seats where before it had four. It would appear some Labour and some voters previously loyal to Mark Rutte voted for Geert Wilders, but not in enough numbers to make a difference, and as UKIP failed to win a by-election in Stoke, this does raise questions about the solidity of the nationalist vote in France, though one exercises caution in their election where the margin of support for the top four candidates is small.

In the Netherlands, the panic is over, and it is back to the 'normal' business of putting a coalition government together.
Results can be seen here-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_...election,_2017