If You Own Any Twitter Stock, Sell It Immediately

[nysprod]

Here's why:

1. I'm listening to the Mike and Mike show on ESPN radio this morning...long story short, they want people to tweet something and use the hashtag "foramillion."

2. I just heard one of them say this hashtag is now the number 1 trend in the U.S.

3. If this hashtag is indeed the number 1 trend in the U.S., twitter is over.

[martin48]

Twitter stock actually finished Tuesday up by more than 11%, not a big deal as it lost 40% from its peak. Price went up because they bought Gnip. Twitter has to do a lot more to understand its users and target them like FB. Twitter, unless it changes greatly, may not survive as it can not easily grow and nearly half of all Twitter accounts have never sent one tweet.

[nysprod]

Quickie math lesson...if something loses 40% of it's value and gains 11% from there, it's only gained back 6.6% relative to the value it started from i.e. it's still down 33.4%.

100 - 40% = 60, 60 + 11% = 66.6

[Tapatio]

Twitter stock actually finished Tuesday up by more than 11%, not a big deal as it lost 40% from its peak. Price went up because they bought Gnip. Twitter has to do a lot more to understand its users and target them like FB. Twitter, unless it changes greatly, may not survive as it can not easily grow and nearly half of all Twitter accounts have never sent one tweet.

A lot of Twitter accounts have never set a tweet because half of the accounts are bullshit- most of the eggs (photo-less users) are just dummy account set up by services that sell Twitter followers. Having a lot of followers apparently enriches the experience for people to the point that they'll buy them.


Twitter actually does ad delivery better than FB. The ads show in your feed and they're easily ignored. So easily ignored, in fact, that Twitter ads don't get the same degree of trolling that you see when a corporation posts on FB. I can't tell you exactly why, but FB ads piss me off in a way that Twitter ads never have.

Twitter can also connect people globally, increasing interaction. On FB you're stuck listening to all your Boo Radley friends. You also have the ability to follow people, unless you're an asshole and they block you. How many people do you think Lady Gaga will "friend" on Facebook? Increased interaction and "interaction" with people one admires leads to greater usage.

The Twitter feed itself is genius. It's like a stock ticker tape, constantly feeding data as it comes in. You can browse through and find what you want, but return to home and you have the updated feed. FB, on the other hand, regularly degrades the user experience by determining what the "top" posts are and showing you those only, unless you change your settings. Every fucking time you have to change the settings. Every. Fucking. Time.

Also, Twitter has porn. It's apparently what the internet was built to provide. They're definitely ahead of the other social platforms in that respect.

[nysprod]

Saying that a stock is over has nothing to do with a company being over...rising stock prices are all about growth...there are firms who rake in billions annually whose stock prices are flat because so are their growth prospects...so imo if the Mike and Mike radio show makes the number 1 trend, the growth in twitter is done although the company itself could go on for years.

[flabbybody]

It's all about how many eyeballs click on your ads and then actually buy something. That's where Facebook buries Twitter
Facebook knows my search history (dental implants, erectile dysfunction, hemorrhoids). Twitter has no clue.

[Tapatio]

I've never heard of Mike and Mike, but if they're driving Twitter activity that's good for ad revenue, which is good for the company and good for the stock.

Totally right, though, the two are often unrelated. The market is a gamble, and a stock purchase a bet. Smart money or stupid money- either will drive the price up or down.

[nysprod]

Don't say I didn't tell you...who am I? In currency trading circles, I'm known by another name that begins with the letter N...In August 2007, when the Fed indicated it would cut interest rates, I said to sell all holdings in stocks and buy treasuries (the S&P peaked that Oct. and crashed in the largest financial disaster since the Great Depression)...in the summer or 2008, I called for a bigger collapse in the Pound than happened in 1992 when George Soros broke the Bank of England...and in March 2009, when then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced on 60 Minutes that the Fed was indeed "electronically" printing money, I advised to immediately jump back into stocks.

From The NY Times:

Twitter is struggling to convince Wall Street that it is still a company with plenty of potential to grow.

In its second earnings announcement as a public company, Twitter said on Tuesday that it had more than doubled revenues, beating its own forecasts and the expectations of investment analysts. But the social network’s stock fell more than 11 percent in after-hours trading because the number of people who joined it did not increase as fast as many had hoped.

Wall Street, it appears, is more worried about Twitter’s ability to add users and keep them engaged than about its ability to increase revenues.

In the last two quarters, that has been a problem. Twitter said it had 255 million monthly users globally in March, up 5 percent from 241 million at the end of December, which ended a quarter in which monthly active users rose by less than 4 percent.

And engagement, a measure of user activity on the site, looked lackluster. On average, users refreshed their Twitter feeds 614 times a month during the recent quarter, up only slightly from 613 times a month in the fourth quarter. Twitter users, especially those overseas, were refreshing their feeds less frequently than they were in the year-ago quarter.

But most disconcerting for shareholders is that Twitter made $1.44 in advertising revenue for every 1,000 timeline views, down from $1.49 from its previous quarter. That may be the best marker of Twitter’s ability to make money from its platform, and in the first quarter it was trending down. In a call with analysts, Twitter’s executives attributed some of that to seasonality because the fourth quarter tends to be the most profitable.