HA predictions:when will Iran get the bomb?

[thx1138]

http://www.csmonitor.com/layout/set/print/content/view/print/422252

[Stavros]

Thanks for the link which reminds people of the repetitive threat hysteria that Iran has been generating since 1979, if not before. The irony surely, is that under the concept of self-defence as contained in the Charter of the UN, Chapter VII, Iran would have the right to strike against Israel in self-defence, as Israel appears to be threatening to strike it first.

Avi Shlaim recently said that if Iran did have nuclear weapons, why would it send one to Israel knowing that Israel would retaliate? Part of the reason is that Israel continues to deny that it has a nuclear capability, so that, in Israeli doublethink, deterrence cannot exist as a strategic option, because -gasp- only one side has 'the bomb'...

Perhaps someone with a brain will replace Netanyahu as Prime Minister, but I'm not holding my breath on that one.

I remember reading one of Anthony Cordesmann's papers in the 1980s in which this American expert on strategy pondered the creation by terrorists of a 'dirty bomb'; followed by the hysteria generated by the collapse of the USSR when 'everything was for sale' and, allegedly their nuclear arsenal was not secure....it hasn't happened yet. May never happen.

[hippifried]

I don't think they're even trying. From the last report I saw (last year I think or 2010), the CIA doesn't think so either. There's no evidence to support any of this hysteria. It's just Israel trying to be relevant in the real world.

[thx1138]

What's funny the west was nervous that even their puppet - the Shah would try to get "the bomb".

[onmyknees]

Thanks for the link which reminds people of the repetitive threat hysteria that Iran has been generating since 1979, if not before. The irony surely, is that under the concept of self-defence as contained in the Charter of the UN, Chapter VII, Iran would have the right to strike against Israel in self-defence, as Israel appears to be threatening to strike it first.

Avi Shlaim recently said that if Iran did have nuclear weapons, why would it send one to Israel knowing that Israel would retaliate? Part of the reason is that Israel continues to deny that it has a nuclear capability, so that, in Israeli doublethink, deterrence cannot exist as a strategic option, because -gasp- only one side has 'the bomb'...

Perhaps someone with a brain will replace Netanyahu as Prime Minister, but I'm not holding my breath on that one.

I remember reading one of Anthony Cordesmann's papers in the 1980s in which this American expert on strategy pondered the creation by terrorists of a 'dirty bomb'; followed by the hysteria generated by the collapse of the USSR when 'everything was for sale' and, allegedly their nuclear arsenal was not secure....it hasn't happened yet. May never happen.


I see...............and you speak about this "Hysteria" over Iran and the bomb safely from the confines of your London crib and not an apartment in Tel Aviv. I'm with you. Why doesn't Netanyahu just put his faith, and the fate of the Jewish State in the hands of Obama, his sanctions, The UN General Assembly, and God? In fact...why doesn't he just wait for the mushroom cloud over Jerusalem before getting all excited ?
If you know any Isreali's, I'm sure they would clarify the imminent danger they feel.....despite what those from "afar" assure them to the contrary.

On all matters Jewish I continue to get this taint of ant semitism from you. ...just the way I see it.

[Stavros]

I see...............and you speak about this "Hysteria" over Iran and the bomb safely from the confines of your London crib and not an apartment in Tel Aviv. I'm with you. Why doesn't Netanyahu just put his faith, and the fate of the Jewish State in the hands of Obama, his sanctions, The UN General Assembly, and God? In fact...why doesn't he just wait for the mushroom cloud over Jerusalem before getting all excited ?
If you know any Isreali's, I'm sure they would clarify the imminent danger they feel.....despite what those from "afar" assure them to the contrary.

On all matters Jewish I continue to get this taint of ant semitism from you. ...just the way I see it.


A) I do not live in London

B) Try to spell it correctly, it is Israel.

B) I don't understand why you smear me with the anti-semitism charge because I am critical of Israel, if you go to Israel you will find there are people there who are more ferocious in their criticism of their own state than I am -are they anti-semitic? Self-hating Jews? How about Avi Shlaim and llan Pappe? Are they anti-Semites? How about Felicia Langer, who once described Israel as a place Kafka would be proud of - why did she leave the country and emigrate to Germany?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felicia_Langer

C) Israel actually has nuclear weapons; Seymour Hersh claimed in his book The Samson Option, that its missiles during the Cold War were targeted at the USSR; where are they pointed at now? Ayatollah Khamanei', the Head of State, has stated publicly that he does not believe that Iran should develop a nuclear weapon, does that mean anything?

D) You rely on confrontation and the threat of violence while people who do live in Tel-Aviv, not just in the Peace Now movement, actually believe in something else; in dialogue and finding a way to create positive relationships with the non-Jewish communities in Israel and across the region. It is an uphill battle when the political agenda is dominated by extremists who attack Christian and Muslim places of worship, an agenda that has seen the Berlin Wall re-built on precious farming land that belonged to Palestinians; and with it created a siege mentality that feeds this hysteria. And yes, by a divided Palestinian population as poorly represented by politicians as the Israelis.

E) If you actually bother to read the article in the link you will realise that this Iranian nuclear 'threat' has been around for decades. The nuclear option, as far as energy goes, is not in my opinion a necessity for the region, I think Obama and any other politician should be proposing a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East, including Israel.

Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Syria are at stage one of the nuclear development process; is Israel going to attack all three states when it gets to stages two or three because it fears them? Whatever happened to the doctrine of deterrence? Do you think anyone would actually use nuclear weapons in the Middle East?

F) I don't believe you have ever been to Israel and seen the place for yourself; I don't believe you have ever walked through the Old City of Jerusalem (where I used to live) and seen it, smelled it, been enchanted by it, and disgusted by it. Warmed to the sense of humour of the people who live there, while despairing of the religious fanatics on all sides who make bogus claims to ownership that cannot resolve the political impasse we are in.

If this is true, then you are the one who has created a false image from the safety of the East Coast of the USA, uninformed by any serious engagement with the published history of the issue you feel so passionate about.

G) It is as frustrating to be in Israel as it is in the Arab states, because there is a wealth of talent and promise across that region, but talented people don't go into politics, and in Israel in particular the moderates have been filleted out and replaced with extemists like Netanyahu. Netanyahu is part of a political tradition that began with Jabotinsky, Avraham Stern and their successors like Begin, Sharon and Shamir -people for whom violence was a way of life; people who bombed and slaughtered their way to independence in 1948 often killing Jews -many of them Holocaust survivors- along the way as part of their war against the British Mandate. Look at Netanyahu's legacy, his record and tell me -what is it that this nasty little man has achieved for his country?

There have been many critiques of Israel, by Jews, from Maxim Ghilan's How Israel Lost its Soul, and Nathan Weinstock's Zionism: False Messiah; to Ilan Pappe's The Ethnic Cleansing of Palestine, and so many contemporary Israeli's it would be tedious to list them all, but Jerome Slater offers a coherent analysis of the situation which is long but worth reading.
http://www.jeromeslater.com/2011/03/jewish-state-controversy-can-zionism-be.html

if you have already made up your mind that there is only one point of view, and that it is yours, where is the debate?