The fallacy of nationalized healthcare

[tsafficianado]

Removed to avoid offending Trish

[Ben]

"... the simplest and most cost-effective solution for America's healthcare woes would be the banning of tobacco products."

You'd simply drive the market underground, spur criminal activity and then you'd have drug -- I mean, cigarette -- gangs fighting over cigarette turf.
A lot of people would be eager to corner the cigarette market... as it would be worth billions and billions. (Most likely the Mexican drug kingpin Joaquin Guzman. He'd want to get into the illicit cig market.)
Banning drugs doesn't work. I mean, the same argument could be made for alcohol. We saw how that turned out. An epic failure.
You treat any drug addiction as a medical problem. Focus on treatment, EDUCATION and prevention. (College kids by and large don't smoke. Because of education.) Banning a drug doesn't work. As we've seen with ALCOHOL and every other drug.

YouTube - John Stossel - Drug Prohibition (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjyUS9CBeVE)

[Ben]

YouTube - John Stossel - Prohibition in America - Part 2 of 5 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqueW4SHVWM)

[tsafficianado]

you're suggesting that people would start smuggling cigarettes in volume into the US? a carton of cigarettes, which MIGHT fetch $200 ON THE STREET, has the volume of about half a kilo of cocaine which fetches about $30,000 on the street. So someone would forego smuggling one product for another which has a markup of about 0.7% of the other? Or someone would risk imprisonment to grow tobacco on any useful scale and forego growing marijuana to capture a dollar/acre yield that would be about 0.02% that of marijuana?
And comparisons to alcohol prohibition is not germaine, at the time of prohibition there was virtually no intention to or significant effort to enforce.

[Ben]

YouTube - Cops Against the Drug War: Jerry Cameron of LEAP (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzrOQudtw-Y)

[Jericho]

you're suggesting that people would start smuggling cigarettes in volume into the US? a carton of cigarettes, which MIGHT fetch $200 ON THE STREET, has the volume of about half a kilo of cocaine which fetches about $30,000 on the street. So someone would forego smuggling one product for another which has a markup of about 0.7% of the other? Or someone would risk imprisonment to grow tobacco on any useful scale and forego growing marijuana to capture a dollar/acre yield that would be about 0.02% that of marijuana?

If there's money to be made, people will smuggle it in.

Here in the UK, the government loses millions every year in lost revenue due to organised tobacco smuggling.

[tsafficianado]

come on people, put on yer thinkin caps, i didn;t say a ban would prevent ANYONE from puffing on occasion. In 2009 the market for cigarettes in the US was SEVENTY SEVEN BILLION DOLLARS at (2009)current retail prices. My suggestion that black-market cigs might fetch $200/carton would balloon that figure to HALF A TRILLION DOLLARS. Surely that sort of a payday would inspire some smuggling, but please stop and think for a second what would be involved in bringing in a volume of cigarettes that represented even a teeny weeny fraction of that volume - we are talking about millions of traincars full. Not gonna happen.
Every percentage you reduce tobacco consumption has a huge impact on long-term healthcare costs, and if you think smugglers could put a dent in that magnitude of demand then i will go back to the dirty pictures and give up on you guys.

[PomonaCA]

If there's money to be made, people will smuggle it in.

Here in the UK, the government loses millions every year in lost revenue due to organised tobacco smuggling.


Someone needs to smuggle in some spelling and grammar, the UK could use it.


Ok, that was harsh. I'm sorry.

[trish]

Primarily I am a 'scientist' with a degree in Economics. In simplified form the attached graph suggests my take on 'nationalized healthcare', with an emphasis of the impact of reducing the capitalist incentive in the healthcare system. Take a look, and before you go on attack THINK about the simple principles I am trying to convey. This is a 'cocktail napkin' sketch, there is nothing 'accurate' about the particulars, ...There's nothing accurate about the qualitative trends either. There's simply nothing accurate about the graph. Why don't you give us the link to a credible source for the data and let us draw the graph, Mr. Scientist? lol

[Jericho]

I'm sorry.

You certainly are.
But, by all mean, keeping trying, you'll get there eventually.

[tsafficianado]

There's nothing accurate about the qualitative trends either. There's simply nothing accurate about the graph. Why don't you give us the link to a credible source for the data and let us draw the graph, Mr. Scientist? lol

Never mind Trish, i have to be honest and tell you that i expected better of you of all people. I've always had a very high opinion of you, you're very sharp, but your mind will function better if you OPEN it occasionally and let it breath.
At the end i asked "what do you THINK". Apparently you THINK lolling at me and insulting me is an intelligent response. I apologize for soiling your little forum, I won't bother you again.

[yosi]

Never mind Trish, i have to be honest and tell you that i expected better of you of all people. I've always had a very high opinion of you, you're very sharp, but your mind will function better if you OPEN it occasionally and let it breath.
At the end i asked "what do you THINK". Apparently you THINK lolling at me and insulting me is an intelligent response. I apologize for soiling your little forum, I won't bother you again.

does trish HAVE TO agree with your opinion?

[guyone]

Smoke organic cigarettes. They're healthier for you.

[hippifried]

TSafficianado.

Anything that gets banned gets smuggled. Anything! The smugglers don't forego anything else. They just add to their operation. There's a big black market in cigarettes already, & they're legal. Black marketeers just undercut the legit sellers because there's no taxes paid, & they still make a sizable profit. Smuggling across the borders is no big deal. The system & organization is already in place thanks to the perpetual ban on something or other for the last 90 years or so.

Economically :roll:, banning tobacco would be counterproductive. Not only would we have to vastly expand the DEA or create a whole new bureaucracy to enforce the ban, but we would also forego all the tax revenue that tobacco products generate at every level, which is considerable. Then there's the industry itself, which is huge. You're talking over $70 billion just in the US market, but I imagine exports are even bigger. You really think you can ban the product here without shutting down domestic production? This is what, a $ trillion industry altogether? A large part of it is agriculture. Shutting it down would be a major blow to several States & the entire Ag industry, along with all of its support industries. Could be a mortal blow to Caterpillar or John Deere.

Oh yeah: Since there's no evidence that banning any substance has ever worked (not ever ever ever...), savings on healthcare would likely be negligible. You say you're an afficianado on numbers too. Add it up. If you really want to do something about the smoking problem, & I agree it's a big problem, then fully cover the help in quitting the habit. Things like the gums, patches, Chantix, & all the counseling or support programs. It'd be a lot more cost effective in the long run without turning the economy on its head. The industry would shift its focus elsewhere through attrition as demand falls. RJR owns Nabisco. Lots of people would like to quit, but this is an extremely tough habit to break. It's not just the nicotine, & it's not about "will power" anymore than anorexia nervosa is an overdeveloped sense of vanity. There's always going to be some smokers, but nobody's going to quit just because somebody orders them to do so. A ban can't work.

[imike24]

Intersting

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